On Saturday, December 3, the U.S. Men’s National Team (1-2-0) will have a chance to do something it hasn’t been able to accomplish since 2002: advance to the quarterfinals at the FIFA World Cup.
Standing in the way is the Netherlands (2-1-0), a side that is unbeaten in its last 18 matches. Kickoff is scheduled for 10 a.m. EST at Khalifa International Stadium in Al Rayyan, Qatar.
USA vs. Netherlands Odds
The odds heavily favor the Netherlands advancing. In the two-way odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which include potential extra time and penalties, the Netherlands are -225 favorites to advance with Team USA at +180. The three-way odds have the Netherlands at -105, the draw at +220, and a U.S. victory at +340.
Based purely on the odds, the implied probability of advancing is 65.97 percent for the Netherlands and 34.03 percent for the Americans.
The implied probability in regulation time is 48.69 percent for a Netherlands victory, 29.70 percent for a draw, and just 21.61 percent for a U.S. win.
The game total of 2.5 favors the under (-178) with over 2.5 priced at +138.
Group Stage Results
The Netherlands topped Group A by beating Senegal (2-0) and Qatar (2-0) and drawing with Ecuador (1-1). Cody Gakpo, a burgeoning 23-year-old striker, scored three of his team’s five goals, including the opener in each match. There were some concerns about his form heading into the tournament; he had been held goalless in his past eight games with his club team, PSV. But Gakpo quieted the concerns early and has been the Netherlands’ salvation with Memphis Depay not fully fit.
Team USA finished as runner-up to England in Group B. After hard-earned draws against Wales (1-1) and England (0-0) in their first two matches, the Americans punched their ticket to the knockout stage with a dominant 1-0 win over Iran. The U.S. completely controlled the first half, generating eight shot attempts to Iran’s zero and maintaining over 60 percent of possession. They were full value for their 1-0 lead at the break. They sat back in the second half but, unlike in the Wales match, it didn’t come back to haunt them.
It appeared that the win over Iran might be a Pyrrhic victory when Christian Pulisic suffered a pelvic contusion on the goal that sent the U.S. through. (He was subbed off shortly thereafter and sent to the hospital.) Reports are that the USMNT’s star striker will be in the lineups on Saturday, but likely at something less than full speed.
Tim Weah scored the only other goal of the group stage for the U.S. when he slotted home a Pulisic feed in the first half against Wales.
USA vs. Netherlands Prediction
The Netherlands are on an ultra-impressive run. Their last defeat came in June 2021 to the Czech Republic (2-0) when they conceded twice after Matthijs de Ligt was sent off. But don’t mistake that streak, nor their 2-1-0 record in the group stage, for dominance.
The Netherlands were extremely lucky to leave the group stage with a +4 goal differential. The Expected Goals (xG) stats at FBref.com show that the Netherlands are not generating quality scoring chances on a regular basis. Against Senegal, a game the Netherlands won 2-0, the xG were 0.9 to 0.7 in favor of the losing side. Against Ecuador, a 1-1 draw, the xG were even more lopsided: 1.7 to 0.1 in favor of the opposition. After Gakpo’s sixth-minute tally, the Netherlands only directed one shot at goal in the final 84 minutes and none on target.
The way the U.S. has played in the opening stages of its World Cup games to date, it’s unlikely that Gakpo and Depay will see quality chances early on. The Pulisic injury makes an early U.S. goal all the more unlikely.
As with the England game, my favorite wager in this match is under 0.5 goals in the first half (+156). I also see value on under 0.5 goals for the full game at +730. At those odds, you only need a 13 percent chance of success for the wager to be good value. The United States has still yet to give up a goal in the run of play during the World Cup—the only shot that beat Matt Turner was an unstoppable Gareth Bale penalty. And the Americans don’t have the deft finishers of the top-tier teams (arguably) outside of a laboring Pulisic. In short, the more-talented attacking side is unlikely to see many prime opportunities.
Best bet: first half under 0.5 goals (+154)
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